Podcast: Many Happy Returns

The Financial Stability Board says frontier AI is the most immediate threat to the financial system — above sovereign debt, private credit and equity valuations. As AI learns to find and exploit vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them, are our banks about to be hacked? — Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode....

Bond ladders are a great way to feel in control of your money. A neat row of gilts maturing year after year, each one handing back its capital right on schedule. But before you buy your first rung, it’s worth asking what the ladder is for, what you’re giving up for that certainty, and whether...

Humanity has just fallen below replacement fertility for the first time in history. A new paper challenges everything we thought we knew about population decline and economic growth. So what happens to your portfolio when the pie stops growing? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Did the Black Death make Europe rich? —...

The Japanese and US governments just spent an estimated $80 billion propping up the yen — and within a fortnight, the market had pocketed half of it. We ask whether politicians can ever actually beat currency traders. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t the government just pick whatever exchange rate it...

Corporate America has just delivered its best earnings season in years — record beats, record margins, and growth numbers that look almost too good to be true. Which is convenient, because some of them are. Meanwhile, Europe is also delivering the goods. We discuss what’s driving the blowout quarter on both sides of the Atlantic....

Your ability to manage money declines steadily after sixty. Yet your confidence in that ability doesn’t decline at all, so mistakes get made with total conviction and go unnoticed, especially by you. What you can do now to protect your portfolio before you reach old age? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: How...

Economists have spent half a century building elegant models of how markets work, and the markets have spent half a century ignoring them. We investigate the great unsolved mysteries of investing. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: If nobody can explain why stocks beat bonds, why are we confident they’ll keep doing it?...

Andy Burnham once said Britain had to “get beyond being in hock to the bond market”. That’s easier said than done when gilt yields are 5%, debt interest is running above £100bn a year, and the autumn Budget has no headroom left. Can the UK escape fiscal fatalism? And in the Dumb Question of the...

Warren Buffett says “never bet against America”. But plenty of people spent the last eighteen months doing exactly that — betting the dollar would be dethroned and the “Sell America” trade would finally pay off. They’re still waiting. We ask whether the United States is still exceptional, or just expensive. And in the Dumb Question...

As the World Cup reaches the quarter finals, we name our starting XI of asset classes. From the goalkeeper who does nothing for eighty-nine minutes to the super-sub you should never mistake for a starter. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does the World Cup affect stock prices? — Thank you to Raisin...

Your “Human Capital” might be the largest asset you own, and it behaves like a bond. Seeing your career as a volatile asset might change how you think about saving, investing, and employment. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do I need Income Protection Insurance? — Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring...

On paper, now looks like a fine time to retire. Annuity rates are generous, gilts finally pay a real return, and even cash earns its keep. But retire into a richly-valued market and a bad first few years can ravage a pot you can’t easily rebuild. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can...

The AI boom has all the signs of a bubble. An exciting new technology, stretched valuations, extreme concentration, circular financing, and uncertain cash flows. But how does it all end? Tom Stevenson joins us to game it out: a dot-com-style pop? A slow puncture? Or is this time really different? — Thank you to Trading...

The best investors aren’t necessarily the cleverest, the best-paid, or the most daring. In fact the evidence suggests they’re closer to the opposite. We look at the backgrounds and temperaments that may outperform. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Are cats better stockpickers than fund managers? — Thank you to Trading 212 for...