Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry.

Russia is the continent’s biggest gas supplier, and many analysts fear that President Putin might be about to turn off the gas taps. The impact of such a move could be profound, with the German Economy Minister warning of the potential for a “Lehman Brothers” moment.

We look at how likely it is to happen, what the fallout could be, and what could it mean for our investments?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What is a black swan event?

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